A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
